经验震害矩阵的完善方法研究  

Approach to making empirical earthquake damage matrix

作　　者：胡少卿[1] 孙柏涛[1] 王东明[1] 陈洪富[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局工程力学研究所,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《地震工程与工程振动》2007年第6期46-50,共5页Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics

基　　金：中国科学技术部社会公益研究专项项目(2004DIA3J010)

摘　　要：近年来我国发生的几次大地震有一些是发生在低烈度区,对地震区已有的建筑物应当怎样来评价它的抗震能力,本文对此进行了探索性的研究。通过将破坏概率离散化得出一次地震中各烈度下震害指数的均值和方差,对比其与标准震害矩阵相应烈度下的值,得到其他烈度下震害指数的均值和方差。我们假设各烈度下震害指数分布都服从Beta分布,由均值和方差反算出Beta分布的未知参数,从而得出其他烈度下各破坏等级的概率值。用本文方法得到的震害矩阵,可为该地区的震害预测和经济损失评估提供科学依据。计算结果表明,本文的方法是可行的。In recent years, several large earthquakes occurred in our country. And some were in the low intensity areas. It is important to evaluate the earthquake resistance of existing buildings in earthquake-affected areas. The expectation and variance of perse. The expectation and standard earthquake damage tribution and the parameter damage variance probability in known intensities are calculated by making the probability dismatrix. of Beta-d of damage probability in other intensities are given by comparing to that of Supposing that the damage probabilities for each intensity obeys the Beta disistribution function is calculated from the expectation and variance in other intensities. Then the probability of each damage grade for other intensities is gained. This damage matrix provides a reference for the earthquake damage prediction and the earthquake economic loss evaluation. The results show that this approach is feasible.

关 键 词：震害矩阵 BETA分布 破坏概率 均值 方差 

分 类 号：P315.957[天文地球—地震学]