云南地区月降雨量时序数据的非线性特性研究  

Testing for nonlinearity in time series of monthly rainfall in Yunnan

作　　者：马军海[1] 刘立霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理学院

出　　处：《系统工程学报》2007年第6期561-567,共7页Journal of Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(60641006)

摘　　要：应用复杂系统理论和方法研究了云南地区月降雨量时序数据的非线性特性.应用Cao方法排除了月降雨量序列为随机序列的可能性;应用替代数据方法中的两种不同的检验统计量对降雨时序数据进行了非线性检验;并结合月降雨量时序数据的功率谱分析,按照降雨时序数据的内在复杂规律研究了其演化特性,实证结果一致表明云南地区月降雨量时间序列具有明显的非线性混沌特性.研究结果为进一步研究月降雨量时序数据的复杂性及其演化规律奠定了基础.The nonlinearity of monthly rainfall time series in Yunnan province is investigated by using the theory of complex system. The Cao method is applied to exclude the possibility that the rainfall time series are random. The nonlinear dynamical features of rainfall time series are verified by using two discriminating statistics of the surrogate data method. The power spectrum of monthly rainfall time series is analyzed. The evolutional properties of the rainfall system are explored according to the inherent law of the rainfall time series. All the results indicate that there is an obvious nonlinear chaotic characteristic in the monthly rainfall time series. The research provides the theory basis for further studying the complexity and evolutionary law of monthly rainfall time series.

关 键 词：替代数据 月降雨量时序 非线性特性 混沌 

分 类 号：O322[理学—一般力学与力学基础] P333[理学—力学]