小城镇灾害易损性可拓评估的原理和应用  

An approach to extension assessment of disaster vulnerability for small towns and its application

作　　者：安永林[1] 彭立敏[1] 张运良[1] 王薇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学土木建筑学院,长沙410075

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2007年第6期123-126,共4页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关项目"小城镇基础设施建设关键技术研究"(2002BA806B03)

摘　　要：为给小城镇防灾减灾和小城镇规划等提供科学依据,本文借鉴可拓原理对小城镇灾害易损性进行了可拓评估。首先,建立了小城镇灾害易损性的可拓评估流程,结合湖南小城镇实例,选取评价指标,确定灾害易损性的分级标准;其次,构建了可拓评估的经典域、节域和物元;然后提出了用简单关联函数计算指标权重;最后,计算了灾害易损性的关联函数值和关联度,评估了灾害易损性的等级并计算了其变量特征值。与模糊评估方法相比,两者平级结果总体上一致。结果表明,该方法能较真实地反映小城镇灾害易损性等级,同时也证明了将可拓原理应用于小城镇灾害易损性评估的可行性。The article proposes an approach to extension assessment of the disaster vulnerability with small towns so as for them to be able to prevent from or reduce disasters based on the extension theory oriented to qualify and quantify the degree of the disaster vulnerability in such places. For this purpose, first of all, we have worked out a flow chart of extension assessment on the disaster vulnerability. Next, some critical factors are chosen to help to Classify the disaster ruinerabilities with due classical elements set up for such assessments for case study of three small towns in Hunan. And, then, necessary means for weighing each of the above said factors have been defined to rid of subjective effect in actual application of the method. Finally, disaster vulnerability degree and its eigenvalues have been obtained by means of accounting correlation equations. Results of our approach show that the disaster vulnerability with Dongjing town is considered to be of the fourth degree while Lijia, of the second degree, and, Taochuan, of the first degree. Compared with the results of fuzzy assessments, the results of our assessment method prove to be more reasonable. Therefore, it can be concluded that our new approach under study helps to provide quantified evaluation results for small towns disaster prevention and planning. It proves to be a more effective and practical method for fulfilling such assessments.

关 键 词：安全评价 小城镇灾害 易损性 可拓方法 物元模型 关联度 指标权重 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]