装载机销售量的优化Verhulst直接模型研究  

Verhulst Direct Optimum GM(1,1) Model and Its Application to Loader Sales Predicting

作　　者：韩朝晖[1] 董湘怀[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南文理学院成教院,湖南常德415003 [2]上海交通大学国家模具CAD工程研究中心,上海200030

出　　处：《湖南科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2007年第4期89-92,共4页Journal of Hunan University of Science And Technology：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(04JJ40044)

摘　　要：利用灰色系统理论,研究了装载机销售量的优化Verhulst GM(1,1)直接模型,该模型不需要累加生成和累减生成,适合于等间距和非等间距数据建模.计算实例表明,该预测模型有更好的适应性和更高的精度,使用方便,值得推广使用.表1,参9.Based on the grey system theory, the Verhulst direct GM（ 1,1 ） model for loader sales predicting was built which extended equal interval to non-equal-interval and suited for general data modeling and estimating parameters of direct Verhulst GM（ 1,1 ）through optimum the background value. The new model need not pre-process the primitive data, accumulated generating operation （AGO） and inverse accumulated generating operation （IAGO）. It was suited for equal and non-equal interval data modeling. Its calculation was simple, higher accuracy and used convenient. The example showed that the new model is simple and practical. The new model is worth expanding and applying in loader sales predicting, 1tab., 9refs.

关 键 词：装载机 销售量 灰色预测 Verhulst直接模型 优化 

分 类 号：TH112[机械工程—机械设计及理论]