全球变暖背景下江苏气候局地响应的基本特征  

Regional Climatic Response of Jiangsu to Global Warming

作　　者：袁昌洪[1] 汤剑平[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学大气科学系中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室,南京210093

出　　处：《南京大学学报（自然科学版）》2007年第6期655-669,共15页Journal of Nanjing University（Natural Science）

基　　金：2005年博士点专项科研基金(20050284035);国家自然科学基金(40028503;40333025);江苏省自然科学基金(BK2005081;BK99020)

摘　　要：在全球变暖背景下,通过对1961—2000年江苏地区13个国家基本基准站地面资料的分析发现,江苏地区气候的响应存在两个基本特征.其一表现为该区域气候年代际变异存在着明显的3个阶段,1968年左右前的降温期,伴随着总云量(低云量)的增加、总辐射减少和大气水汽表征量的减少;在1968—1986年左右的转型耦合期,气候变异不明显;1986年以及其后的增温期,伴随着总云量(低云量)的减少、总辐射增加以及大气水汽表征量的增加.第二个基本特征则为,在上述降温—减湿/增温—增湿期,明显对应着降水减少/增加时期,从理论上论证了这种对应关系是由于湿热涡旋效应增强所致.We analyzed the observation data from 13 stations at Jiangsu province, eastern China from 1961 to 2000. It was found that there are some interesting significances of the regional climate response to annual and inter-annual climate change at Jiangsu. Among them, the first characteristic is that the climate variation has three obvious stages in this region. The temperature is actually decreased before the year of 1968 around, with the total cloud cover （as well as low cloud amount） increased, meanwhile the total radiation is actually reduced and the quantity of atmospheric water vapor reduced too. From 1968 to 1986, a special stage, namely a transforming stage could be identified, in which the climate variation is not so significant. After the year of 1986, that contrasts the first stage, a significant warming period persists. The second characteristic, perhaps is of most importance, is that the warming/cooling period of temperature corresponds very well with wet/dehumidify period. And as a consequence precipitation is increased/decreased. It indicates, in the view of theoretical point, that the helical enhancement by an increase of moist-heat spin-up effect is important to these changes.

关 键 词：全球变暖 气候变化 局地响应 湿热涡旋增强 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]