周期外推方法在海水水温预报中的应用  

Application of Distinct Periodicity Extrapolation to Sea Water Temperature Forecast

作　　者：张志刚[1] 蔡东明[1] 骆永军[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军大连舰艇学院军事海洋系,辽宁大连116018

出　　处：《海洋技术》2007年第4期69-71,共3页Ocean Technology

摘　　要：针对海水温度的周期性变化,利用周期外推方法进行海水水温预报,并用平稳过程对周期变化以外的部分进行拟合,最后得到预报值。与实际观测资料比较,检验了预报的结果。The sea water temperature forecast is very important for the oceanography element forecast. The sea water temperature changes periodically in some areas in the China Sea. So we can forecast it with distinct periodicity extrapolation method. To the periodical change, a method to forecast sea water temperature by means of periodicity extrapolation is introducted in this paper. At the same time the method can also simulate the aperiodic change with smooth random process theory. Then the forecasted temperature in a certain area is given and compared the results with observation value. The application was proved to be feasible.

关 键 词：周期外推方法 水温预报 

分 类 号：TP722.4[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]