应用线性合成概率方法探讨青藏高原北部地区强震趋势  

Study on strong earthquake tendency in the north of Qinghai-Tibet plateau using the method of linear probability

作　　者：马玉虎[1] 胡玉[1] 

机构地区：[1]青海省地震局,中国西宁810001

出　　处：《地震地磁观测与研究》2007年第6期1-5,共5页Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research

基　　金：地震科学联合基金青年课题(605028)资助

摘　　要：基于周期谱分析基础上的线性合成概率预测方法,对青藏高原北部地区MS≥7.0、MS≥6.5强震进行了试验性研究,并利用其结果作为预测依据,对青藏高原北部地区强震趋势做了初步估计。利用该方法,本文还对东昆仑断裂带1900年以来的MS≥7.0强震进行了研究。Using the linear synthesis probability method based on periodical spectrum,the authors analyzed the earthquakes above MS≥7.0、MS≥6.5 scale occured in the north of Qinghai-Tibet plateau.A preliminary estimation of the strong earthquake tendency in the north of Qinghai-Tibet plateau about future several years was made according the outcome of prospect prediction.And the strong earthquakes of MS≥7.0 in the east kunlun mountain active fault zone from 1900 are also investigated.

关 键 词：线性合成概率 青藏高原北部地区 强震趋势 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]