西北建筑业发展趋势的模拟及其动因分析  

Development trend simulation and movement cause analysis of construction industry in Northwest

作　　者：曹艳平[1] 王一平[2] 刘林[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安建筑科技大学理学院,陕西西安710055 [2]长安大学理学院,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《西安建筑科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2007年第6期885-888,共4页Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：陕西省自然科学基金(2004G05)

摘　　要：基于因果分析理论、自回归分布滞后模型和误差修正模型,对西北建筑业的发展趋势及其动因进行了分析和研究,建立了西北地区建筑业的发展与控制模型,揭示了西北建筑业发展的内在规律及其与各影响因素之间的系统作用关系,结论表明西北建筑业的长期发展和短期波动规律首先延续着其本身的发展惯性,其次西北建筑业产值的发展动因主要来自财政收入、国民经济生产总值、铁路和公路线路长度,对西北建筑业的发展与调控有一定的意义.Building industry plays an important role in the development of all countries. It is well-known that the building industry is the main contributor of the gross domestic product. Based on the causality theory, autoregressive distributed lag model and error cOrrection model, this paper carried out a positive study on the development of Northwest china＇s construction industry including its locomotive force. It sets up development and control model of construction industry, and reveals inherent law of construction industry development in N. W. China and the systematic function relation between the construction industry and its movement cause. The conclusion shows that the law of the development in the long term and change in the short term is its natural development inert, and the movement cause consists of public revenue, gross domestic product and the length of the railway and highway. It has positive meanings in the development and control of construction industry in Northwest China.

关 键 词：因果关系 长期均衡关系 误差修正模型 西北建筑 发展趋势 

分 类 号：TU-9[建筑科学]