上货航中美航线货运量的分析与预测  

Analysis and Forecast of Cargo Quantity on Sino-US Routes for Shanghai Airlines Cargo International Company

作　　者：张丽[1] 曹婧 

机构地区：[1]上海工程技术大学航空运输学院,上海201620 [2]上海国际货运航空有限公司,上海200231

出　　处：《上海工程技术大学学报》2007年第4期377-380,共4页Journal of Shanghai University of Engineering Science

摘　　要：收集了上海国际货运航空有限公司(以下简称"上货航")中美航线开通以来货运量的数据资料,结合中美航线的政策和市场环境对其变化和波动进行了分析和解读,并且基于已有数据,对上货航中美航线的货运量作模型构建,建立了拟合度较高的ARIMA模型,以作为上货航以后经营该条航线的决策依据和预测工具。All the statistical data of cargo have been collected since the opening of Sino-US route of Shanghai Airlines Cargo International Company. Based on the Sino-US route policy and market environment, the changes and fluctuations were analysed. A proper ARIMA model was established for a good fitting established as the basis for decision-making and forecasting tools.

关 键 词：中关航线 中关航空协议 业务量分析 预测 

分 类 号：F560.8[经济管理—产业经济]