丰枯季节电价决策模型分析  

Decision Model Analysis of Season-of-use Price

作　　者：张钦[1] 王锡凡[1] 王建学[1] 刘林[1] 傅旭[1] 曾勇红[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学电气工程学院,陕西省西安市710049

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2007年第24期7-11,15,共6页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2004CB217905)~~

摘　　要：丰枯季节电价是需求侧响应的重要手段之一,制定合理的丰枯季节电价水平是其成功实施的关键。基于对用户历史数据和电力消费行为的分析,通过建立丰枯季节电价的电量电价弹性矩阵来反映用户对丰枯季节电价的响应。提出了丰枯季节用电量差异率、水火互济指数和电网公司实施丰枯季节电价的风险度的概念,并从电力市场运行风险的角度,利用风险价值(VaR)法对实施丰枯季节电价的市场效益进行了评估。建立了一种有效的丰枯季节电价决策模型,并利用遗传算法对该模型求解。算例仿真验证了所述方法的有效性。Season-of-use （SOU） price is an important measure of demand side response （DSR）, and a rational level of SOU price is crucial to its successful implementation. Based on an analysis of the historical data and electricity consumption behaviors, customers＇ response to SOU price is first described by a price elasticity matrix of demand. The concepts of differential rate of season demand, hydro-thermal electricity exchange index and risk of implementing SOU price are then presented. From the viewpoint of electricity market operation risk, the market benefit of SOU price is evaluated with value-at-risk （VaR） method. Furthermore, a decision model of SOU price is introduced and then solved by genetic algorithm （GA）. Numerical results are finally used to prove the effectiveness of the proposed model.

关 键 词：需求侧响应 丰枯季节电价 电量电价弹性矩阵 丰枯季节用电量差异率 水火互济指数 

分 类 号：F407.61[经济管理—产业经济] F224