“三江源”地区未来气候变化的模拟分析  

Analyses on the Climate Change Scenarios over the Three Rivers’ Headstream Region in China

作　　者：许吟隆[1] 张颖娴[1] 林万涛[2] 徐宾[1] 肖子牛[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所农业部农业环境与气候变化重点开放实验室,北京100081 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京100029 [3]云南省气象局,昆明650034

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2007年第5期667-675,共9页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目2003CB415101-03;国家"十五"科技攻关课题2004BA611B02;国家"十一五"科技支撑计划课题2007BAC03A02

摘　　要：利用ECMWF 1979-1993年的再分析数据（ERA15）作为边界条件，驱动区域气候模式系统PRECIS（Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies）模拟“三江源”地区的月均降水与台站实际观测资料进行的对比表明，PRECIS模拟的降水值偏大，但总体上能够模拟出降水的季节变化特征。气候基准时段（1961～1990年）的模拟结果与同期观测资料的对比分析表明，PRECIS能够模拟出“三江源”地区降水的季节分布特征和空间差异，但模拟值总体偏大。相对于气候基准时段，SRESA2、B2情景下2071～2100年（2080s时段）“三江源”地区增温明显，两种情景下年均升温分别可达4℃和2．8℃，降水略有增加；冬季升温幅度最大，分别可达4．4℃和3．2℃，降水增加的比例也最大；夏季“三江源”地区的升温达到4．2℃和3℃以上，但有些地区的降水呈减少趋势。夏季降水量的减少和气温的升高会加剧“三江源”地区气候变干的趋势，导致源区水源补给不足。应当采取切实可行的措施保护江河源区的自然生态系统，避免源区气候环境的进一步恶化。ECMWF 1979 1993 reanalysis data （ERA15） is used as quasi-observational boundary conditions to drive the PRECIS （Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies）, a regional climate modeling system developed in UK Met Office Hadley Centre, and the direct comparison of the simulated monthly mean precipitation and in situ observation in meteorological stations in the Three Rivers＇ Headstream Region shows that the precipitation is overestimated by PRECIS, however, the PRECIS can reproduce the seasonal cycle of precipitation in the Three Rivers＇Headstream Regior. It is indicated from the comparison between the simulated baseline （1961-1990） precipitation and observation that the seasonal precipitation regime and spatial distribution over the Three Rivers＇ Headstream Region can be simulated by the PRECIS, but the simulated precipitation is systematically larger than observatior. The temperature increments over the Three Rivers＇ Headstream Region could reach 4 ℃, 2.8 ℃ annually, 4.4 ℃, 3. 2 ℃ in winter, and 4.2 ℃, 3 ℃ in summer during 2071-2100 （2080s） under SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, relative to baseline, while the corresponding annual precipitation would increase slightly, the winter precipitation would increase in high percentage, but the summer precipitation would decrease in some areas of the Three Rivers＇ Headstream Region. The coincidence of temperature increase and precipitation decrease in summer would enhance the drought in the Three Rivers＇ Headstream Region and result in water supply shortage to the three rivers. Protective measures should be taken to conserve the natural ecosystems and avoid the deterioration of the climate and environment over the Three Rivers＇ Headstream Region in China.

关 键 词：三江源 气候变化 气温 降水 模拟 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]