电价时间序列混沌特性分析及电价预测  

Chaotic characteristic analysis of electricity price time seqience our country and its price forecast

作　　者：李郁侠 赵军科 王伟[1] 王丽霞[1] 吴子英[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学水利水电学院,陕西西安710048 [2]东方电机控制设备有限公司,四川德阳618000

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第1期229-234,共6页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：陕西省教育厅专项科研基金项目(095JK266)

摘　　要：【目的】为了提高电力市场环境下电价预测的精度。【方法】在分析电价形成机理的基础上,研究了四川电网电价时间序列的混沌特性,并利用电价时间序列和负荷时间序列的相关性建立了电价预测模型。【结果】算例分析表明,该模型很好地解决了四川电网日前市场和实时市场的电价预测问题。【结论】模型对系统边际电价和"价格钉"具有良好的预测能力。[Objective] The study is to improve the price forecast accuracy in electricity market. [Method] The forecast model is set up by using the relation of price and load based on analyzing the mechanism of the price and the chaotic feature of the price time sequence in Sichuan power grid of our country. [Result] This model can successfully forecast the price in the real time and the present power market of Sichuan power grid. [Conclusion] The model can be used to forecast the system marginal price and ＇price spike＇ forecast.

关 键 词：电价预测 电价时间序列 混沌特性 价格钉 

分 类 号：F407.61[经济管理—产业经济]