区域增强数值预报系统中的客观分析  

THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SCHEME FOR ENHANCED REGIONAL NUMERICAL PREDICTION SYSTEM

作　　者：王在志[1] 阎敬华[1] 何溪澄[1] 

机构地区：[1]广州热带海洋气象研究所

出　　处：《热带气象学报》1997年第3期237-245,共9页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

摘　　要：主要介绍了在广州区域气象中心新建立的区域增强数值预报系统的资料分析处理方案。该分析方案的实施包含三个步骤：第一步以Ｔ６３模式的分析（或预报）作为初估场，进行多变量的最优统计插值（ＯＩ），将不同类型的观测资料插值到模式网格点上，同时分析增量满足一些简单的动力约束关系；第二步是对分析要素作单变量的逐步订正；第三步则是对分析场进一步做变分调整。通过这三个步骤，不仅可以使最终的分析场保留大尺度气象特征，而且可以将中尺度气象信息补充进来，分析变量之间还可以保持较好的动力约束关系。以９５０９号台风为个例，对其登陆前的台风环流场进行了分析，并作了预报，还与Ｔ６３分析的相应结果作了对比。The objective analysis scheme for enhanced regional numerical prediction system (ENFS) newly established in Guangzhou Regional Meteorological Centre (GRMC) is described,in which three stages are employed.The first stage is multivariable optimal statistic interpolation (OI) with all kinds of observations using the outputs of T63 as its first guess; the second stage is univariable successive correction method(SCM), and the last stage is a simple variation adjustment. Through these stages, not only the large scale features can be maintained in the analysis, but the mesoscale information cooperative to the forecast model can also be contained, while the analysis variables have a good dynamical agreement.The circulation for Typhoon 9509 is analysed as a case study before its landing, and the track is predicted to illustrate the properties of this scheme.

关 键 词：天气预报 数值预报系统 区域增强 中尺度分析 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]