西藏地区40年来气候变化动态分析  

Dynamic Analysis on the Climatic Change in Tibet Area for 40 Years

作　　者：谭军[1] 师庆东[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2008年第1期277-279,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：对西藏地区26个基本站点和基准站点从1961～2001年的日均温、日最高最低温、降雨量和日照时数进行统计。利用趋势回归方法对西藏地区气象因子变化进行距平分析，得到≥10℃的有效积温、有效积温起始及结束日、有效积温持续期、日最高最低温、降雨量和日照时数都存在上升的变化趋势。利用小波分析对其变化趋势做周期性分析，得到积温存在10年尺度的周期变化，降雨量存在3年的小周期性波动，而日照变化周期性则不明显，The statistic was conducted on the daily average temperatures, daily highest and lowest temperatures, rainfall and sunlight hours of 26 basic sites and datum sites in Tibet area in 1961 - 2001. The distance average analysis on climatic factor change in Tibet area by trend regression method showed that there was increasing trend on the effective accumulative temperature equal to or higher than 10 ℃, the beginning and ending date and duration of effective accumulative temperature, daily highest and lowest temperatures, rainfall and sunlight hours. The periodicity analysis on their change trend by wavelet analysis indicated that the accumulative temperature had periodic change with 10-year-period, the rainfall had little periodic fluctuation with 3- year-period and the periodicity of starlight change was not obvious.

关 键 词：气候变化 有效积温 动态分析 小波分析 

分 类 号：S16[农业科学—农业气象学]