俄罗斯经济快速增长的因素分析及2008年预测  

Factor analysis of Russian Economic Rapid Growth and 2008 Prediction

作　　者：米军[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江师范大学工商管理学院,浙江金华321004

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2008年第1期82-87,共6页Northeast Asia Forum

基　　金：国家社科基金规划项目"俄罗斯金融制度变迁的现状与发展趋势研究"(07CGJ014)

摘　　要：2006年俄罗斯经济保持稳定增长态势。2007年俄罗斯的经济形势总体上可以概括为:经济继续稳定增长,增速进一步提高。由于宏观经济环境整体性得到改善,经济增长的内需导向型发展进一步加强,国内经济的基本因素在经济增长中起主导作用,这是俄多年来改革和调整措施逐步生效的结果。为转变增长方式,政府在经济生活中的作用继续增强。受能源供给增长乏力的限制,2007年俄罗斯出口增幅趋缓的趋势不会改变,进口增速远远高于出口增速成为2007年的显著特征。但国际高油价的利益驱动仍会使俄罗斯不断增加石油生产和出口,同时"黑色金子"也是推进俄内需作用扩张的重要基础。值得关注的是金融对经济增长的拉动作用开始显现。我们乐观地认为,2008年俄罗斯继续保持稳定的增长势头。The Russian economy has maintained a trend of steady growth in 2006. In 2007 Russia＇s economic situation can be summarized as follows： The economy continues to stable growth, the growth rate further improves. Because of the comprehensive improvement of the environment and the fitrther development of domestic demand - oriented economy, domestic economy fundamentals play a dominant role in economic growth. This is the results that years of Russian reform and adjustment measures gradually take effect. To change the mode of growth, the government＇s role in economy growth would continue to strengtben. Because of the constraints of weaken energy supply, Russia＇s slowdown in export growth Rend will not change in 2007. Import growth rate is much higher than the rate of exports growth is a significant feature of this year. However, the interests of international high oil prices would drive Russia still rising oil production and exports. Actually, ＂Oil Dollars＂ is the important foundation of promoting the Russian domestic demand expansion too. It is noteworthy that the financial role in boosting economic growth started to be apparent. We can get the conclusions optimistically, Russia＇s economy would continue to grow steadily in 2008.

关 键 词：2007年 2008年 俄罗斯经济 稳定增长 

分 类 号：F151.232[经济管理—世界经济]