张掖市水资源利用现状及未来趋势预测  

Analysis on the Actuality of Water Resources Utilization and Its Future Prediction in Zhangye City,Gansu Province

作　　者：刘洪兰[1] 张俊国 董安祥[1] 李红 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]张掖中学地理教研室,甘肃张掖734000 [3]张掖市气象局,甘肃张掖734000

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2008年第1期35-40,共6页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“典型内陆河区域河西走廊地区降水规律的研究”(40475031)资助

摘　　要：利用张掖市1951-2006年的降水量、气温、蒸发量等气象资料,以及黑河上游莺落峡水文站的径流量,分析了张掖市降水、气温、蒸发量、黑河年径流量与水资源总量的关系,以及水资源总量的年代际变化,并以2004年为现状年,对城市发展的用水状况进行了对比分析。在分析水资源利用历史和现状的基础上,利用均生函数方法建立了张掖市水资源预测模型。结果显示:未来20年,张掖市水资源呈现出缓慢下降的趋势,水资源短缺仍将是一个十分严重的问题。Zhangye City is located in an arid area in the central Hexi Corridor of Gansu Province, and it is in serious shortage of water resources. As a result of the urban development and population growth, the shortage of water resources becomes more and more serious. This paper analyzes the correlations between the annual temperature, precipitation and evaporation in Zhangye City and the annual runoff volume of the Heihe River and the total volume of water resources as well as the decadal change of total volume of water resources based on the meteorological data of precipitation, air temperature and evaporation in Zhangye City and the data of runoff volume measured by Yingluoxia Hydrological Station at the upper reaches of the Heihe River during the period from 1951 to 2006. Moreover, the actuality of water resources utilization in the city in 2004 is analyzed. The results reveal that there is positive correlation between the annual precipitation and the annual runoff volume of the Heihe River and the total volume of water resources, that is the total volume of water resources is reduced by 5.6% when the annual precipitation is decreased by 10% ; there is an inverse correlation between the annual temperature and evaporation and the total volume of water resources, that is the total volume of water resources is reduced by 3.1% when annual temperature is increased by 1℃. On the basis analyzing the history and actuality of water resources utilization, a prediction model of water resources in Zhangye City is developed. The predicted result reveals that the volume of water resources in Zhangye City will be slowly decreased in next 20 years, and the shortage of water resources will become more serious.

关 键 词：水资源 利用现状 城市发展 预测模型 张掖 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]