危险化学品运输风险分析  

Risk Analysis of Dangerous Chemicals Transportation

作　　者：张江华[1] 赵来军[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2007年第12期117-122,132,共7页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70673012);国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(70432001);教育部人文社会科学项目(06JA630018)

摘　　要：文章从事故率估计和事故后果模拟分析两个维度来分析危险化学品运输风险.应用信息扩散理论估计了危险化学品运输事故率,并基于GIS技术模拟分析了危险化学品运输事故后果,前者弥补了样本信息不足的缺陷,而后者利用详尽的地理信息克服了以往后果分析中准确度低的不足,完善了危险化学品运输风险分析,从而为更好的决策以减少事故、保护人民群众的生命和财产安全提供了保障.Risk analysis of dangerous chemicals transportation is the basis of safety transportation decision and key of accident warning and emergency rescue as well. This paper focuses on dangerous chemicals transportation risk from two dimensionalities, which are accident rate evaluation and results simulation analysis. We use information diffuse theory to evaluate dangerous chemicals transportation accident rate, and analyze the result of dangerous chemicals transportation accident with GIS simulation technology, The former method complements the fault that lacking of enough observation data; the latter one with detailed geography information overcomes the defect that analysis have low accuracy. This approach further develops the method of dangerous chemical transportation risk analysis, then helps to make effective decision to reduce accident and protects people＇s lives and fortune.

关 键 词：危险化学品 运输 风险分析 信息扩散 模拟 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]