我国城镇商品住房需求的行为特征分析  

Housing demand behavior of urban residents in China

作　　者：刘洪玉[1] 任荣荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学,北京100084

出　　处：《土木工程学报》2007年第12期83-88,共6页China Civil Engineering Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70440005)

摘　　要：从宏观经济学中家庭储蓄与消费行为的基本理论出发,建立住房需求方程,并将误差修正模型应用于方程的估计,进而分析我国住房需求的长期与短期的行为特征。研究表明,当前我国住房市场中住房需求偏离长期均衡关系的短期波动较小,并具有很强的恢复长期均衡关系的能力;住房需求具有较高的收入弹性,不管从长期还是短期来看,需求均伴随收入增长而高速增长;住房面积需求具有极大的刚性;目前我国住房需求的增加是一个必然的过程,适当增加供给尤其是公共住房的供给是解决住房问题的根本出路。研究结果可为政府制定以需求为主导的住宅用地供应计划、进行住房价格的宏观调控提供参考。Based on the general macroeconomic theory of households＇ saving and consuming behavior, a housing demand equation was established. An empirical study was conducted with an Error Correction Model to investigate the housing demand behavior of urban residents in China. The results indicate that, during the past sixteen years, the housing market in China exhibits a strong demand trend, that the short-term fluctuation of the housing demand departing from the long-term equilibrium is quite small, that the large coefficient of the non-equilibrium item in the Error Correction Model demonstrates a high capability of the housing demand to return to the long-term equilibrium, that the housing demand increases rapidly with the increase of income from both the long and the short terms, that the housing demand measured by floor space lacks price flexibility, and that increasing housing supply, especially the public housing supply, is an efficient way to solve the current housing problems. Some suggestions were provided as a reference for the government to plan the land supply and regulate the housing market.

关 键 词：住房需求 弹性 误差修正模型 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]