凉山州短临泥石流预报模型与方法的研究  

RESEARCH ON VERY SHORT RANGE FORECAST MODEL AND METHOD OF REGIONAL DEBRIS FLOW FOR LIANGSHAN

作　　者：张京红[1,2] 韦方强[2] 邓波 曾文芹 顾林康 

机构地区：[1]海南省气象科学研究所南海气象减灾防灾重点实验室,海口570203 [2]中科院-水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,成都610041 [3]凉山州气象台,西昌615000

出　　处：《气象科学》2007年第B12期15-20,共6页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：中国科学院山地灾害与环境研究所创新前沿项目(编号:C_320307);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向性项目"泥石流预应用系统研制"(编号:KZCX3-SW-352)

摘　　要：通过对泥石流灾害成因的分析研究,确定了预报模型中的各类参数,阐述了激发泥石流的静态和动态影响因子中各类数据及其获取方法,详细探讨了中小尺度的区域泥石流短临预报模型和方法。选择泥石流危害严重的四川省凉山州作为研究区,利用可拓学原理,在直接获取气象局降水数据的基础上,建立了区域泥石流短临可拓预报模型。在GIS技术支持下,开发了凉山州泥石流短临预报系统。According to the analysis and study of courses of debris flow disaster formation,various in- dices in the forecast model are confirmed. Different data of static and dynamic influence indices, which lead to debris flow,and their getting method are discussed in this paper. Very short range forecast model and method of middle and small-scale regional debris flow are studied in detail. Liangshan where debris flow disaster is very serious is selected as study area. Using extension theory, based on precipitation data provided directly from meteorological bureau,a very short range forecast model of regional debris flow is set up. Under the support of GIS technology,a very short range forecast system for Liangshan is developed.

关 键 词：泥石流 预报 中小区域 降水 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]