花粉浓度预报方法的初步探究  

PRIMARY RESEARCH METHOD ON FORECASTING THE POLLEN CONCENTRATION

作　　者：刘彬贤[1] 白玉荣[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津市气象台,天津300074 [2]天津市气象科学研究所,天津300074

出　　处：《气象科学》2007年第B12期95-98,共4页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：中国气象局新技术推广项目(编号:CMATG2005M26)

摘　　要：本文利用1999—2004年天津气象铁塔站的花粉观测资料,以及同期相关气象资料进行统计分析,发现花粉年季变化存在明显的周期性和季节性,以此为基础,进行花粉浓度预报效果较好,预报等级完全吻合率达84.96%,这对提前预知花粉的浓度变化,预防和减轻花粉过敏症的发生具有较好的参考作用。Using the daily pollen data and the related weather data of same period from 1999 to 2004 in Tianjin,the characteristics of pollen concentration are discussed. The results indicate that the pollen concentration vary clearly with seasons. The pollen concentration forecast method is discussed,accurate forecast grade rate is 84.96% ,which is important to predict and alleviate the pollen hypersensitivity.

关 键 词：花粉浓度 气象要素 统计分析 

分 类 号：P421.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]