进口反倾销行为对产业价格指数影响的反事实研究框架  

A Contrafactual Research Framework of the Effects of Import Anti-Dumping Behaviors on Price Index of Industry Involved

作　　者：杨悦[1] 何海燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《商业经济与管理》2008年第1期57-63,共7页Journal of Business Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"反倾销政策与产业损害数据资料库系统规划研究"(70573011)资助

摘　　要：在回顾前人研究成果的基础上,运用反事实的分析方法,构建了反倾销行为对该产业价格指数变化影响的研究框架。应用时间序列模型和多元回归模型的组合预测模型,预测出假设不存在反倾销行为时的价格指数,运用分布滞后模型分析价格指数实际值与预测值的差额同反倾销行为的联系,从而建立起反倾销行为同价格指数之间的分析模型。该模型考虑了数据的可获性,可以得到前期和当期进口反倾销行为对本期产业价格指数的影响。On the basis of collecting latest research literature, the author puts forward a research framework of the effects of import anti - dumping behaviors on the price index of industry involved, by using contrafactual analysis. Use time series model and multiple regression model to set up a combination forecasting model and give the predicted value of price index on the assumption that there is no antidumping behaviors. By using a distributed - lag model of antidumping behaviors factors and difference between actual price index and predicted value, the paper sequentially proposes the model to analyze the effects of import anti - dumping behaviors on the price index of industry involved. This model is based on the availability of data and can describe the effects on industry＇ s price index from import anti - dumping behaviors in earlier and current period.

关 键 词：价格指数 反事实分析 反倾销行为 研究框架 

分 类 号：F753.02[经济管理—国际贸易]