美国自华进口对其经济增长的影响  

An Empirical Study on Impact from the United States' imports from China on Economic Growth in the United States

作　　者：刘威[1] 陈继勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《经济管理》2008年第1期34-37,共4页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"美国双赤字与世界经济失衡"(2007JJD790140)

摘　　要：本文利用协整分析与Granger因果检验方法,对美国自华进口对美国经济增长影响进行了实证研究。研究认为,美国GDP增长与美国自华制成品进口间呈反向长期均衡关系,与自华初级产品进口间则没有这种均衡关系,但美国自华制成品进口不是引致美国GDP下降的原因。美国不应将其经济增长趋缓或下降归咎于中国,中国也应通过扩大进口缓解当前的国内流动性过剩。In this paper, we used Cointegration analysis and Granger causality test methods to study on the real effect of the United States ＇ imports of manufactures and primary products from China on economic growth in the United States. It makes a conclusion that there is a counter long-term balance between the GDP＇ s growth in the United States and the United States ＇imports of manufactures from China, while there is no relation between the GDP＇ s growth in the United States and the United States＇ imports of primary products from China. However, the United States＇ imports of manufactures from China is not the reason of declining of GDP＇ s growth in the United States. Therefore, the United States should not attribute the slow down of economic growth to China. And China should alleviate domestic liquidity surplus by expanding imports.

关 键 词：美国自华进口 经济增长 制成品 初级产品 

分 类 号：F753[经济管理—国际贸易]