中国农村居民时间偏好结构特征与扩大内需政策创新  

Structural character of temporal preference of China＇s rural resident and the policy innovation of enlarging internal demand

作　　者：叶德珠[1] 胡北平[2] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院,广东广州510632 [2]广东金融学院经济贸易系,广东广州510521

出　　处：《中国经济评论（1536-9056）》2007年第11期42-49,61,共9页Zhongguo Jingji Pinglu

基　　金：本文是中国教育部优秀博士论文专项基金项目（No.200403）、暨南大学创新团队项目（No.04SK2D03）和暨南大学引进人才项目“行为经济学利率期限结构理论的框架研究”的阶段性成果.

摘　　要：本文采用行为经济学双曲线贴现模型并加以参数改造，对中国农村居民保守消费观中所包含的时间偏好的非线性偏差特征进行了技术表达和逻辑演绎。研究表明，农村居民由于“崇俭黜奢”理念的作用会表现出对奢侈品消费的负罪感，形成对消费的过度自我控制认知偏差和前低後高的时间偏好贴现率结构，从而造成跨期消费中持续的时间不一致，导致消费不足，以此可从“内因”的角度解释中国农村高储蓄、低消费之谜。本文模型派生出来的消费锁定技术能有效地抑制农村居民的遇度自我控制偏差，进而将其消费锁定在社会最优水平，与政府干预的阶段性和操作性要求相吻合，因此可成为解决中国农村居民消费拖延问题，实现扩大内需政策创新的一个理想选项。This paper, applying with the hyperbolic discounting model and modifying with parameters, makes a technology expression and logical induction for the non-lineal bias character of time preference, included in the conservative consumption viewpoint of China＇s rural residents. The study demonstrates that due to the Consumption thought of honoring frugality and debasing luxury, rural residents would present the excessive self-control to the consumption, which forms the temporal-preference discounting structure of high forepart and low later and results in the outcome of temporal inconsistence in the trans-period consumption as well as insufficient consumption. Thus the puzzle of high saving and low consumption in China＇s rural area can be resolved from the aspect of inner factors. The consumption-committing technology, endogenetic from this paper＇s model, can effectively restraint the excessive self-control bias of rural resident and thus lock in the consumption level to the optimal one, which caters to the stage and operation requirement of government＇s intervention. As a result, it can become a perfect choice for settling the problem of China＇s rural resident consumption delaying and realizing the policy innovation of enlarging internal demand.

关 键 词：时间偏好 小农消费观 双曲线贴现 扩大内需 

分 类 号：F323.8[经济管理—产业经济] F123.16