分期设计洪水频率与防洪标准关系研究  

Seasonal flood frequency analysis and flood prevention standard

作　　者：肖义[1] 郭生练[1] 刘攀[1] 熊立华[1] 方彬[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室

出　　处：《水科学进展》2008年第1期54-60,共7页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(5067906350609017);霍英东青年教师基金资助项目(101077)~~

摘　　要：现行分期设计洪水模式估算的分期设计洪水值均小于或等于年最大设计值,达不到规定的防洪标准。采用Gumbel-Hougaard Copula函数描述两个分期的分期最大洪水之间的相关性结构,并构造边缘分布为P-Ⅲ分布的分期最大洪水联合分布,建立分期最大洪水与年最大洪水的关系式,讨论分期设计洪水频率与防洪标准应满足的关系,探讨能够满足防洪标准的新的分期设计洪水模式。应用示例表明,新模式主汛期设计值相对年最大设计值小幅度增加,而非主汛期设计值则小于年最大设计值,既满足不降低防洪标准的要求又能够起到优化设计洪水的作用,为分期设计洪水研究提供了一条新的思路。The flood quantile estimated by conventional seasonal flood frequency is less than or equal to annual maximum estimator, and can not satisfy a given flood prevention standard. A bivariate joint distribution with Pearson Type Ⅲ distribution margins is developed based on Gumbel-Hougaard Copula and used to describe two seasonal maximum flood series. A relational equation between annual maximum flood and seasonal maximum floods is developed, and the relationship between the frequen- cies of seasonal flood quantiles and design flood prevention standard is also given. Ultimately a new seasonal flood frequency analysis method is proposed and developed. Compared with the conventional annual maximum method, the seasonal design floods estimated with the proposed method are slightly greater in the main flood season and less in other flood seasons. It is shown that the proposed method could satisfy flood prevention standard and provide a new way for determining seasonal design floods.

关 键 词：分期设计洪水 防洪标准 联合分布 COPULA函数 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]