西藏一江两河流域作物气候生产力对气候变化的响应  

Responses of climate-productivity to climatic change in central Tibet from 1961 to 2005

作　　者：杜军[1] 胡军 周保琴 刘依兰[1] 左慧林[4] 

机构地区：[1]西藏自治区气候中心,西藏拉萨850001 [2]拉萨市气象局,西藏拉萨850001 [3]西藏林芝地区气象局,西藏林芝860000 [4]西藏自治区气象局,西藏拉萨850001

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2008年第1期141-145,共5页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“西藏羊卓雍湖对全球气候变化的响应”(40565002)

摘　　要：根据1961～2005年年平均气温、降水量资料，采用Thomthwaite Memorial模型计算了西藏一江两河流域作物气候生产力（Pv），分析Pv的变化趋势，以及未来气候变化对Pv的影响。结果表明：近45年西藏一江两河地区Pv呈二次项曲线变化趋势，前22年（1961～1982）表现为不显著的减少趋势，减幅为376．0kg／（hm^2·10a），1983年以来呈显著的增加趋势，增幅为682．6kg／（hm^2·10a）。20世纪60年代流域气温偏低，降水偏多，Pv为正距平；80年代多干旱少雨年，Pv最低，为过去40年最低的10年；90年代雨水偏多，气温偏高，气候“暖湿”，植物干物质积累多，Pv达到最高。“暖湿型”气候对作物生产最有利，平均增产11．62％，而“冷干型”气候对作物生产最不利，平均减产12．13％。未来“暖湿型”气候趋势，Pv将有不同程度提高，有利于生态环境改善。Based on the 9 meteorological stations＇ data of annual mean temperature and precipitation in central Tibet from 1961 to 2005, the data of the crop climatic productivity （Pv） are computed by Thornthwaite Memorial Model. The spatial distribution and variation of the Pv are analyzed, and the responses of Pv to climate change are discussed. The results show that the trend of Pv indicate a decrease of 376.0 kg/（hm^2·10a） in 22 years from 1961--1982, but it shows distinct increasing tendency from 1983 to 2005 and increased by 682. 6 kg/（hm^2·10a）. On an average in central Tibet, the cold and wet climate occurred in the 1960s, the Pv is positive anomaly. The when it is dry with less rain in the 1980s, the Pv is the lowest among the past 45 years, and during the warm and wet climate in the 1990s, the Pv is the highest. Under climate change scenarios, the warm and wet climate would benefit the Pv with an average increase of yield by 11.62 % in central Tibet, while the cold and dry climate would have an adverse impact on Pv with an average decrease of yield by 12.13 %. It can be deduced from existent research that the concerning temperature and precipitation trend in central Tibet belongs to the warm and wet climate trend which would increase the Pv and is advantageous especially for improving eco-environment.

关 键 词：作物气候生产力 气候变化 西藏一江两河流域 

分 类 号：S162.3[农业科学—农业气象学]