油价长期高位对我国社会经济的影响与对策  

Impacts of High Oil Price on China's Social-economy and its Countermeasures

作　　者：魏一鸣[1] 焦建玲[2] 梁强[1] 范英[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100080 [2]合肥工业大学,合肥230009

出　　处：《中国科学院院刊》2008年第1期11-15,共5页Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

摘　　要：石油价格持续上涨无论对世界经济,还是对正处于快速发展的我国经济来说,都是一个不容忽视的重要问题。本文应用我们开发的能源经济模型,分析了国际石油价格上涨对我国社会经济的影响,并围绕降低油价影响的石油管制政策和相关部门技术进步进行了政策模拟。研究发现,国际石油价格持续上涨将会加剧我国通货膨胀、减缓经济增长、降低股票市场的投融资能力和居民生活水平。研究还表明:石油管制政策和相关部门技术进步有助于减缓油价影响。文章最后提出了应对高油价的有关措施。Oil price continually rising and at high level will cause great impact on not only world economy but also China＇s economy. In this paper, the impact of high oil price on china＇s social-economy is analyzed, and the related policies are also discussed, which are conducted by applying the energy-economy model. The results show that oil price increase pricks up inflation, mitigates economic growth, weakens investment and financing capacity of stock market and lowers residents＇ living standard. Oil price and export regulation, technology improvement in related departments help to relax the pressure of oil price increase. Moreover, we put forward some other policies implications such as perfecting oil pricing mechanisms, etc.

关 键 词：高油价 石油安全 管制 技术进步 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]