黄河流域水资源多目标利用的柔性决策模式  

Flexible Decision-Making Mode of Multiple Water Resources Use in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：彭少明[1] 李群[1] 杨立彬[2] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学水利水电学院,西安710048 [2]黄河勘测规划设计有限公司,郑州450003

出　　处：《资源科学》2008年第2期254-260,共7页Resources Science

基　　金：国家973重点基础研究发展规划项目(编号:G19990436);国家自然科学基金项目(编号:50479024)

摘　　要：水资源系统分析特点是大系统和多目标,包括经济持续发展、生态环境良性维持、社会和谐等多目标问题,解决这些问题,传统的运筹学方法常会遇到"维数灾"问题。论文针对水资源利用多目标特征,结合黄河流域水资源利用存在的主要问题,探讨水资源多目标利用的耦合关系,建立融合社会、经济与生态环境综合效益的水资源多目标优化模型体系。引入多目标柔性决策理论和决策者目标满意隶属度模糊推理技术,并在此基础上提出水资源多目标柔性分层决策方法。采用实数编码遗传算法优化求解,建立基于加速遗传算法(RAGA)的柔性决策(FDM)模型,利用模型强大的搜索功能和交互模式求解决策者满意的方案,避免维数灾问题。以2010水平年为例,进行黄河流域水资源利用模拟优化求解,结果表明优化方案可兼顾社会、经济和环境等目标,实现水资源的多目标优化分配,促进流域经济社会和谐发展、水资源高效利用。研究将多目标协调优化的柔性决策理论和方法引入水资源系统,为指导流域水资源的合理开发提供了一种宏观决策方法。Systematic analysis of multiple water resources use is always involved in such dimensions as sustainable economic development, environment conservation and harmonious social development. This paper, combined with the critical problems of current water resources development, discussed the coupling relationship of multiple water resources use and established optimal model of multiple water resources use in Yellow River basin in consideration of comprehensive social, economic and eco-environmental benefits. Flexible decision-making model and satisfactory-degree-fuzzy-reasoning techniques also were introduced in this paper. Based on flexible decision-making principle, flexible decision-making mode of multiple water resources use and decision-making indicator system were proposed, and the decision-making matrix was constructed. We applied the real coding technique to set up the flexible decision-making model of multiple water resources use based on real-coding accelerating genetic algorithm （RAGA）. In this paper, Yellow River basin was selected as case study area, and the data of water resources use in 2010 were calculated through the optimal model. The result showed that the optimized scheme of water resources use is compatible with social, economic and environmental objectives while seeking a higher water use efficiency and fulfillmeni of multiple water resources allocation. This research provided a method for decision makers to manage the watershed-based water resource development.

关 键 词：黄河流域 水资源 柔性决策 容忍值 满意度 隶属函数 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]