基于遗传算法和过渡矩阵的旅游者特征预测研究  

Forecasting Tourists' Characteristics by a Genetic Algorithm with a Transition Matrix

作　　者：翁钢民[1] 郑竹叶[1] 

机构地区：[1]燕山大学经济管理学院,河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《软科学》2008年第2期8-12,共5页Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(05KBS018)

摘　　要：要使旅游地的旅游管理目标与旅游供给和需求结构相适应,不仅需要预测出未来旅游者的总数量,而且还应该预测出旅游者群体在具体特征方面表现出的不同需求构成,遗传算法与过渡矩阵相结合的方法可以有效地实现这一预测目标。最后以实例证明了这种预测方法的有效性。In order to making tourist management goals compatible with the rourist supply and demand structure,we should not only forecast the total number of tourists , but also forecast the internal composition of the demand in terms of specific characteristics of the future groups. This view type of forecasts can be achieved by a genetic algorithm （GA） with a transition matrix. Finally, the methodology＇s validity of forecasting has been proved by an illustration.

关 键 词：旅游者特征 遗传算法 过渡矩阵 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]