基于进化博弈模型的产业集群成长研究  

Study on the Life Cycle of Industry Cluster by Evolutionary Game Chain Model

作　　者：阮爱清[1] 刘思峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京210016

出　　处：《科学学与科学技术管理》2008年第2期91-95,共5页Science of Science and Management of S.& T.

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70473037;70701017);南京航空航天大学创新集体和科研创新基金项目(Y0488-091)

摘　　要：产业集群是具有"生命周期"的典型进化过程。运用进化博弈模型,分析集群的种子、核和集群三种状态及不同阶段的收益状况,建立产业集群成长的演化模型。通过仿真,利用集群收益的变化率信号,将产业集群的整个成长过程描述为经历产业集群"种子"→"核"生长期→快速成长期→成熟稳定期→衰退(转型)期。揭示出核生长期"困难期"的存在及其重要意义。Industry cluster could be seemed as an organism with life force and lifecycle. In this paper the development of industry cluster goes through three states, from seed state, through core state, and then to cluster state. On the base of that, the evolutionary game model of it is established. Moreover according to change rate of the pay-off of industry cluster from simulation result, the whole lifecycle of industry cluster should from seed state experience these phases, core growth phase, expand phase, mature phase, and decline or upgrade phase. By simulation, it is discovered that during core growth phase, there exists a ＂difficult phase＂, which is critical to development of industry cluster.

关 键 词：产业集群 进化博弈 生命周期 “核”生长期 困难期 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]