辽宁省干旱地区自然条件下甲型肝炎发病特征的研究  

Research on the Characteristic of Incidence of Hepatitis A in Liaoning Drought Area Under Natural Condition

作　　者：黄德生[1] 单连峰[1] 曲波[2] 关鹏[3] 周宝森[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国医科大学基础医学院数学教研室,沈阳110001 [2]中国医科大学中国卫生统计编辑部,沈阳110001 [3]中国医科大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室,沈阳110001

出　　处：《中国医科大学学报》2008年第1期50-51,69,共3页Journal of China Medical University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70503028)

摘　　要：目的探索辽宁省干旱地区自然条件下甲型肝炎季节性和趋势性发病特征。方法该地区1981-1993年甲型肝炎发病率数据来源于辽宁省疾病预防控制中心,利用圆形分布构成比法和余弦函数模型分析甲型肝炎季节性发病规律,利用Daniel检验分析年发病趋势特征。结果该地区甲型肝炎发病高峰时点为10月中旬,圆形分布构成比法确定的高峰时区为7月25日至12月29日,余弦函数确定的高峰时区为9月11日至11月18日。含第一谐量的余弦方程决定系数R2为0.6234;含第二谐量的方程决定系数R2为0.9121,平稳性Daniel检验为0.3132(P>0.05)。结论该地区自然条件下发病率无逐年上升或下降的明显趋势,秋季为该地区甲型肝炎的高发时期,但是也不能忽视春季的发病。含有第二谐量的余弦方程能够更准确地描述具有两个高峰的周期性数据。Objective Explore the seasonahty and trend of hepatitis A in Liaoning drought area under natural condition. Methods The incidence of hepatitis A from 1981 to 1993 was obtained from Haoning Province Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The methods of circle distribution proportion and cosine function models were used to analyze the seasonal role of hepatitis A,and the trend characteristics were studied by using Daniel test. Results The epidemic peak was in the middle of October. The method of circle distribution proportion showed that the high incidence interval was from July 25 to December 29, while what the cosine function showed was from September 11 to November 18. Determinant coefficient R2 of single cosine function equation was 0.6234,while R2 of double cosine function equation was 0.9121 ,Daniel test statistics equal to 0.3132 （P 〉 0.05）. Conclusion There is no yearly increasing or decreasing trend. Although autumn is the high incidence season for hepatitis A in this drought area, incidence in spring should not be ignored. Equation with double cosine function can improve the accuracy of prediction dealing with two peak time series data.

关 键 词：甲型肝炎 季节性 周期性回归 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统]