基于贝叶斯网络的架空输电线路运行状态评估  

Operation State Evaluation of Overhead Transmission Lines Based on Bayesian Network

作　　者：韩富春[1] 董邦洲[1] 贾雷亮[2] 周国华[2] 寇爱国 

机构地区：[1]太原理工大学电气与动力工程学院,太原030024 [2]山西省电力公司,太原030001 [3]大同供电分公司,大同037008

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2008年第1期101-104,共4页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

摘　　要：为了详尽及时地掌握架空输电线路的运行情况,提高线路运行的可靠性,提出了一种基于贝叶期网络的架空输电线路运行状态评估方法。贝叶斯网络可以灵活地表示变量的随机不确定性和相关性,还能方便地进行不确定性推理。基于贝叶斯网络建立的架空输电线路运行状态数学模型,不仅能够得出架空输电线路及其各部件的3种运行状态的状态概率,而且还可以动用贝叶斯网络的双向推理技术方便地求解架空输电线路各部件对整条线路运行状态的影响,得出整条架空输电线路的薄弱环节,通过实例计算表明了此方法的有效性和实用性。In order to obtain the operation state of overhead transmission lines in time and improve operation reliability of lines,this paper presents a method for operation state evaluation of overhead transmission lines based on Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks can indicate random uncertaninty and correlativity of variables. The math model of the operation state evaluation of overhead transmission lines based on Bayesian networks can not only carry out three kinds of the state probability of the whole overhead transmission lines and each part of lines, but also obtain the impact of every component of overthead transmission line on operation state of entire line with bidirectonal ratiocination technology of Bayesian networks,based on which weak part of entire overhead transmission line can be found. The method is proved to be valid and practical by care study.

关 键 词：贝叶斯网络 架空输电线路 状态评估 双向推理 

分 类 号：TM726.3[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]