基于改进的计划评审技术的航空项目风险评价技术研究  

Approach based on improved-PERT for better risk evaluation of aviation project

作　　者：杨铭[1] 李原[1] 张开富[1] 沈琴[1] 徐志勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学机电学院现代设计与集成制造技术教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710072

出　　处：《计算机集成制造系统》2008年第1期192-196,208,共6页Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2006BAF01A03)~~

摘　　要：通过分析航空项目风险之间的关系,提出了以项目进度风险率为指标的评价项目整体风险水平的思想。针对经典计划评审技术方法的不足,提出了基于改进的计划评审技术的航空项目风险评价方法。该方法用莫尔法确定重要活动的概率分布,用当量概率法对经典计划评审技术法计算的项目工期进行修正,以项目工期服从正态分布为基础,计算项目进度风险率,从而获得项目的整体风险水平。最后,以某型飞机研制项目04段装配子项目为例,阐述了应用该方法进行风险评价的一般步骤。After analyzing relationships among aviation project risks, an idea of taking the probability of schedule risk as benchmark of project risk-level was proposed. To overcome shortcomings of classical program evaluation technology, based on improved-Program Evaluation and Review Technology （PERT）, a new risk evaluation method was proposed to assess project risk. This method used the Monroe method to estimate probability-distribution of important activities and the equivalent-weight probability method to amend project duration. Then the probability of project schedule risk was computed based on probability theory, and so successfully gains the project risk-level. Finally, 04-segment assembly of some aviation project was provided as an example to demonstrate the general process of risk evaluation.

关 键 词：风险评价 计划评审技术 莫尔法 当量概率法 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]