桉树青枯病测报模型的研究  

The Forecasting Models of Bacterial wilt in Eucalyptus

作　　者：石明旺[1,2] 林雪坚[1,2] 吴光金 张民兴[3] 林绪平 蔡俊兴 黄俊辉 

机构地区：[1]中南林学院环境与资源系 [2]株洲,412006 [3]广东省森林植物检疫苗圃 [4]广东省湛江市林业局

出　　处：《中南林学院学报》1997年第2期26-31,共6页Journal of Central South Forestry University

基　　金：国家"八五"攻关课题!"桉树青枯病流行规律及预测预报研究"

摘　　要：根据桉树枯病发生及流行规律的定点观测资料，采用灰色系统理论的方法，建立了广东吴川林场和斗门县林业局试验林桉树青枯病预测模型；依发病率与相应的旬平均温度、相对湿度和降雨量，应用多元回归方法，建立了桉树青枯病多元线性回归预测模型．经检验和进行实际验证，证明上述模型均有较高的可信度．并表现为灰色系统模型的精度高于多元线性回归模型．According to the data obtained by fixed position observation during the occurrence and spread of Bacterial wilt in Eucabotus, the prediction models for WuchuanForest Farm and for the trial forest of Doumen Forest Bureau have been set up by usingthe grey system theory. With rate of disease, even temperature in ten days, relatve humidity and rainfall as variables, the multivariate linear regression forecasting models ofBactedal wilt in Eucayptus have been established by employing the method of multivariateregression. The results of the experiments and testing prove that the models proposed herehave a high reliability and that the grey system models are superior in forecasting precisionto the multivariate linear regression models.

关 键 词：桉树 青枯病 灰色系统 预测模型 

分 类 号：S763.723.9[农业科学—森林保护学]