NCEP/NCAR逐时分析与中国实测地表温度和地面气温对比分析  

Comparison and Analysis Between NCEP/NCAR Every-6-hours Analysis Land Surface and Air Temperature and 753 Chinese Stations' Observation in 2005

作　　者：周青[1] 赵凤生[2] 高文华 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]国家卫星气象中心 [3]山西省运城市气象局

出　　处：《气象》2008年第2期83-91,共9页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家973“我国南方致洪暴雨监测与预期的理论和方法研究”项目《探测中尺度暴雨系统参数三维结构的定量遥感理论和方法及其在中尺度资料同化中的应用研究》2004CB418305

摘　　要：美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)和国家大气中心(NCAR)的全球分析资料,不仅应用于气候模拟和预测研究中而且也可作为卫星遥感云检测的初始场资料。通过对2005年NCEP逐6小时全球最终分析资料(FNL)与中国753个台站实测资料的地表温度和地面1.5m高气温进行Cressman插值,从时次变化和空间变化等方面系统地分析和比较了这一年间NCEP分析值与中国区域内观测值之间的差异,得到结果:NCEP分析地表温度较观测值普遍偏低,而地面气温NCEP分析值的空间分布大致表现为在北部地区大于观测值、而南部地区小于观测值;就2005年季节变化而言,NCEP分析值在夏季比冬季符合得好,而在我国东南部比东北、西北符合得好;从时次上看,地温和气温都呈现出随着时次推进(从2时到20时),正值区(NCEP分析值-实测值>0)减弱、负值区(NCEP分析值-实测值<0)加强的趋势;而通过标准化均方根误差的分析,可以知道气温的NCEP分析资料在我国可行性比地温要好。The NCEP/NCAR analysis data is widely used not only in climate change simulation and prediction research but also in cloud detection of remote sensing area as initial data. An systemafic inter-comparison and analysis by Cressman interpolation is made between the NCEP Global Final Analysis （FNL） dataset and 753 station observed land surface temperature and 1.5 m-above air temperature data over China in 2005 in terms of time, season and geographical position. Through this comparison, some differences existed between the NCEP and the observed data can be identified. Comparison with the observed data, land surface temperature of the NCEP data is lower than the observed data in general, while 1.5m-above air temperature is overestimated in the north of China and is generally underestimated in the south. In terms of season and geographical position variation, the reliability of the NCEP dataset is better in summer than in winter and is better in the southeast than in the northeast and northwest. From the point of diurnal variation （from 2：00 to 20：00 in local time） in land and air temperatures there is a tendency that the positive value areas （NCEP analysis 〉observations） shrink and the negative-value areas expand. The normalized RMSE shows that the practicability of air temperature NCEP re-analysis for China is better than the land temperature NCEP re-analysis.

关 键 词：NCEP逐时FNL分析资料 标准化均方根误差 时次比较分析 季节比较分析 

分 类 号：P422.4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P467