Dempster-Shafer证据理论在目标意图预测中的应用  

Application of Dempster-Shafer evidence theory in target intention prediction

作　　者：孙亮[1] 于雷[1] 邹德鹏 

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学工程学院,西安710038 [2]空军装备部沈阳局驻沈阳地区代表室,沈阳110037

出　　处：《电光与控制》2008年第3期33-36,共4页Electronics Optics & Control

基　　金：军队重点科研基金资助项目(HX05205)

摘　　要：为了准确对目标意图进行预测,以便我方及时合理地作出战术决策,采用D-S证据理论对目标意图进行预测。首先提取出影响目标意图预测的各个态势因素,然后分析每个因素的影响效果。在此基础上建立目标意图预测的数学模型,利用D-S合成法则将所有因素的影响进行综合,并计算出各个可能命题的概率赋值并给出相应决策。最后,通过仿真实例验证了该方法在目标意图预测中的可行性和实用性。In order to accurately predict the intention of target so as to make decision reasonably in time, the D-S evidence theory is used in target intention prediction. At first, the situation factors that have effect on target intention prediction are extracted, and then the effect of each factor is analyzed. Based on which, mathematic models are set up for target intention prediction. With the D-S composition law, the influences of all factors are integrated together, the prohability values of the likely propositions are calculated out. Numerieal simulation examples showed that the method of intention prediction is feasible and practical.

关 键 词：D—S证据理论 目标意图预测 态势元素 空战 

分 类 号：V271.4[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计] TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]