煤炭资源开发系统动态仿真研究  

Research on dynamic simulation of coal resources development system

作　　者：孙玉峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东工商学院管理科学与工程学院,山东烟台264005

出　　处：《煤炭学报》2008年第2期237-240,共4页Journal of China Coal Society

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70573064);国家软科学研究计划资助项目(2006GXQ3D154);山东省社科规划研究项目(05BJZ38);山东省软科学研究计划资助项目(B2006039)

摘　　要：提出了基于系统动力学的煤炭资源开发系统动态仿真方法,建立了动态仿真模型.选取煤炭可采储量、原煤产量、工作面个数、新建工作面个数和报废工作面个数5个主要系统变量,对模型进行了历史仿真检验.并运用情景分析法对所建立的模型进行实证分析.通过设定3个情景,对某矿区进行了情景计算和政策实验.研究表明,所建立的模型方法是有效的和可信的,模型可以作为一个"政策实验室",对矿区进行未来发展情况的仿真预测和政策分析.The dynamic simulation method on the coal resources development system based on the system dynamics was proposed and the dynamic simulation model was established. Five main system variables were chosen such as coal recoverable reserve, raw coal output, the number of working faces, the number of newly built working faces and the number of scrapped working faces to carry out the historic simulating checkout to the model. The method of scenario analysis was applied to carry out case study on the model. Scenario calculation and policy experiment were carried out on certain mining area by setting up 3 scenarios. The results indicate that this model is effective and credible, it can become a ＂policy laboratory＂ to simulate, forecast and analyze the future developing conditions of mining area.

关 键 词：煤炭资源开发 系统动力学(SD) 仿真 

分 类 号：F407.21[经济管理—产业经济]