外贸、外资与工业结构升级——基于中国数据的经验分析  

Foreign Trade,Foreign Direct Investment and the Upgrading of Industry Structure——An Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese Data

作　　者：李树丞[1] 丁艺[1] 李林[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学工商管理学院,湖南长沙410082

出　　处：《山西财经大学学报》2008年第1期51-56,共6页Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(06BJL066)

摘　　要：通过建立VAR模型，对中国1985—2004工业结构、进口贸易、出口贸易和FDI之间的关系进行了协整分析，检验了工业结构与进口、出口、FDI之间的长期协整均衡关系和短期格兰杰因果关系，并刻画了脉冲响应函数（IRF）。结果显示，工业结构升级、出口依存度、进口依存度和FDI之间存在长期均衡关系，进口贸易和FDI对工业结构升级起到了促进作用，而出口贸易对工业结构升级存在负面影响。By constructing the VAR Model, this paper does an co-integration analysis on the date of industry structure,import trade,export trade during 1985 to 2004. The authors analyze the four variables by long run co-integration equilibrium correlations, Grange causality relationship and impulse response function （IRF）. qlae analysis indicates that there is long - term equilibrium among the four variables. And the authors find that there is a positive effect from import trade and FDI to upgrading of industry structure, but the export trade is negative to it. The authors put forward some suggestion for strengthening of upgrading of industry structure in the opening economy condition.

关 键 词：工业结构升级 进口贸易 出口贸易 FDI 

分 类 号：F424.0[经济管理—产业经济]