基于网络分析法(ANP)的水电工程风险分析及其应用  

Risk analysis of hydropower project based on analytic network process and its application

作　　者：钟登华[1] 蔡绍宽[1] 李玉钦[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300072

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2008年第1期11-17,共7页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家杰出青年科学基金(50525927)资助项目

摘　　要：水电工程项目在开发建设过程中往往面临着来自技术、经济、自然和社会环境等诸多方面的风险和干扰,其风险因素又难以量化且他们之间相互关联、相互影响,本文针对此问题,提出了基于网络分析法(ANP)对水电工程风险进行分析,建立了风险因素多准则、多层次的ANP结构模型,并对模型的求解进行了详细的阐述。最后,以某水电工程为例,应用此方法求得风险因素总排序,结果表明ANP能够比较有效地处理多种风险因素之间复杂影响关系,从而发现了其主要关键的风险因素,为工程项目的风险控制和管理提供了重要的参考。Risk factors of technology, economy, nature, social and other aspects are of interdependence and interaction during development and construction of hydropower projects, so they are very difficult to be quantified. The method based on analytic network process （ANP） to study risk factors of hydropower projects and the multi- criteria and multi-hierarchy structural model of ANP of hydropower projects are presented in this paper. The solution of the risk factor weight vectors in the model is described and studied in detail. To take Guanyinyan hydropower project as an example, the method is used to analyze the risk. The result indicates that the proposed method can reflect the complicated relationship of risk factors more effectively and discover the key risk factors, so it provides the important reference value for risk control of the hydropower project.

关 键 词：工程管理 风险因素 风险分析 网络分析法(ANP) 结构模型 

分 类 号：TV73[水利工程—水利水电工程]