城市供水管道更新时间预测模型  

Study on Predictive Model of the Replacement Time in Water Supply Pipelines

作　　者：马学文[1] 夏利[1] 程琳[2] 

机构地区：[1]东北大学信息科学与工程学院,辽宁沈阳110004 [2]沈阳建筑大学市政与环境工程学院,辽宁沈阳110168

出　　处：《沈阳建筑大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第1期129-131,共3页Journal of Shenyang Jianzhu University：Natural Science

基　　金：辽宁省自然科学基金项目(20042012)

摘　　要：目的建立城市供水管道更新时间预测模型,通过经济有效的管网修复和更新策略,减少爆管事故的发生率,提高供水系统安全性.方法利用Shamir和Howard提出的爆管预测发生率模型和极限爆管发生率方程,建立换管时间预测模型,并对模型中计算参数进行分析.结果在预定服务期内,可以管道修复和更新总费用最小来确定最优更换时间.计算结果表明:最优更换时间t值对管道折旧率γ值的变化不敏感,而对爆管发生率增长的系数A值的变化非常敏感.结论爆管发生率增长的系数A值减少可延缓管道更新时间,对于不同材质、管径、管龄、压力和土壤腐蚀性的管道应取不同的A值.It is important to set up the predictive models for pipe replacement time in water distribution system. Through scientific management and technology rehabilitation and replacement to network, the rate of pipe break could be reduced and the security of water distribution systems would be enhanced. In this paper, the predictive model of replacement times is obtained by taking the threshold break rate into the Shamir and Howard＇s exponential break rate model, parametric analysis is carried out to examine the sensitivity of the optimal replacement by the example. Optimal replacement time prediction is based on minimization of the total cost during a predetermined service period. The results show that the optimal replacement values of discount rate are fairly sensitive and very sensitive to the values of growth rate coefficient A . The replacement time can be delayed by decreasing the value of coefficient A . The value of coefficient A should vary with pipe diameter, age, pressure, type and soil corrosivity.

关 键 词：城市供水管网 爆管 预测模型 管道更换 

分 类 号：TU991.3[建筑科学—市政工程]