企业产业链系统赢利率仿真分析  

Simulation Method for Risk Analysis in Firm-based Industry Chain System

作　　者：孙静春[1] 席酉民[1] 王军[1] 吕丁[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学管理学院,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2008年第2期458-463,共6页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：国家"985工程"二期建设项目(07200701);国家自然科学基金资助项目(G0222208)

摘　　要：物质的循环利用对于生态系统和产业链系统的发展来说都是最重要的原则之一,但循环系统导致的复杂性和由这此产生的风险将会随着产业链系统中处理流程数量的增加而增加。针对这类问题提出用集成链仿真分析方法解决赢利风险评价问题,并通过国家大型煤矿集团——义马集团的应用案例说明其适用性。案例研究表明产业链系统的物质循环利用帮助义马集团将其赢利率从其主业-煤炭采掘业的39%提高到整个产业链系统的80%。分析结果表明该方法是研究产业链系统赢利率的有效手段,也有利于研究产业链系统(例如煤炭采掘业)的整体特征。Recycling is one of the most important principles of both natural and industrial ecosystem development.However, recycling ecosystems’complexity,and the risk problems generated by the complexity,will increase with the number of process units in industrial ecosystems.An integrated chain analysis methodology was proposed to describe the profit possibility of firm-based industrial ecosystems,which combined material flow analysis and chain analysis of economic value. The validity of this methodology was shown by a case study of the Yima Mining Corporation.The simulation indicates that recycling in a firm-based industrial ecosystem helps the Yima Mining Corporation increase its profit possibility from 38.96% in its coal mining sector to 80.37%in the entire industrial ecosystem.Application of the proposed integrated chain simulation shows that this methodology is robust for exploring the profitability of firm-based industrial ecosystems,and that it is a useful complement to material flow and economic value chain analysis to study features of industrial ecosystems such as in the coal mining industry.

关 键 词：产业链 煤炭采掘业 仿真 赢利率 

分 类 号：F062[经济管理—政治经济学]