气候检测与归因的格兰杰检验法  

Granger Causality Test for Detection and Attribution of Climate Change

作　　者：曹鸿兴[1] 郑艳[2] 虞海燕[3] 蔡秀华[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]中国社会科学院可持续发展研究中心,北京100032 [3]北京市气象局观象台,北京100089

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2008年第1期37-41,共5页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40375025);北京自然科学基金项目(8042012)资助

摘　　要：为揭示气候变化并探索其可能原因,引入了格兰杰因果检验法。在叙述其基本原理的基础上,对影响中国气温变化的若干因子进行了检验。论证了通过检验的因子与中国气温变化的可能物理联系,着重说明了二氧化碳增加对中国气温变化的影响,解释了我国增温滞后于全球气温变化的原因。由此证实格兰杰因果检验法是气候变化检测与归因的一种有用的新方法。通过计算和分析,证实了格兰杰检验法的可用性。For revealing and exploring climate change and its causes, Granger causality test is introduced in this paper. In presenting the basic principle of the Granger test, several climatic variables are tested for their impacts on temperature changes in China by means of the Granger causality test, and the possible physical connections between these variables and temperatures in China are revealed. The focus lies on the impact of CO2 concentration on temperature changes in China; further, the cause for the lag of temperature changes in China relative to global warming is explained reasonably. Thus it is proved that the Granger causality test may be a new and useful method of the detection and attribution of climate change and its feasibility is demonstrated.

关 键 词：气候变化 检测与归因 格兰杰因果检验 天气预报 

分 类 号：P468.0[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]