数值模式产品应用于安徽省可增雨区预报的研究  

Study on the Forecast of Precipitation Enhancement Based on Mesoscale Model in Anhui Province

作　　者：翟菁[1] 周后福[1] 冯妍[1] 张建军[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省气象科学研究所安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室,安徽合肥230031

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2008年第3期1153-1155,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：中国气象局2005年新技术推广项目"基于新一代天气雷达的省级人影业务系统"

摘　　要：基于中尺度数值模式MM5产品进行冰面过饱和度、散度差、K指数、比湿等相关物理量的计算,利用逐步判断法得到一个判断增雨潜力大小的综合指标,对安徽省增雨潜力区分布进行分级预报的研究。从个例结果来看,预报的潜力区分布与实况降水的分布有较好对应关系。这种催化潜力区的分布用图形方式给出,形象直观,非常方便人工增雨业务人员识别,因而对省级、地市级气象部门进行增雨作业具有实际应用意义。Super-saturation with respect to ice, divergence differenee, K index and specific humidity was ealeulated based on mesoseale model MMS, and synthetical index, which was used to estimate precipitation enhanccment, was got step by step, so the analysis of the areas fitting precipitation enhancement in Anhui Province was done. The areas with precipitation enhancement got along well with observed precipitation, The method of picture for index precipitation enhaneement was very inmitionistie, convenient for operation worker and marie application sense to precipitation enhaaneement in provincial level and city level.

关 键 词：中尺度模式产品 增雨潜力 预报 

分 类 号：S165.2[农业科学—农业气象学]