生态规划中人口规模预测方法探讨——以深圳市龙岗区为例  

Study on the Population Prediction in Ecological Layout

作　　者：李峰[1] 马晓明[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学环境科学与工程学院,北京100871

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2008年第3期1189-1190,1206,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：人口预测是生态规划的重要环节。目前预测人口规模的方法模型多种多样,但各有利弊。在人口流动性强的地区,人口数量与经济发展、产业结构关系密切,利用经济总量(GDP)、产业结构和技术进步预测未来劳动力数量,进而预测总人口规模是可行的方法。The population prediction is an important part in ecological layout, There have been lots of models and methods of prediction population, but they all have advantages and disadvantages, In the district where the flow of population is quick, the amount of person has strong relationship with economy development and industry structure. With GDP, industry structure and technology advancement, the labors in future can be predicted, and then the relationship of labor and population can be confirmed for the population amount, In this article, Longgang district in Shenzhen being taken as example, the new method was tested,

关 键 词：人口预测 经济总量 产业结构 技术进步 龙岗 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]