渤海湾赤潮藻类细胞密度的超阈值分布  

Peak-over-Threshold Distribution of Concentration of Harmful Algae in Bohai Bay

作　　者：冯剑丰[1] 王洪礼[2] 李胜朋[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300072 [2]天津大学机械工程学院,天津300072

出　　处：《天津大学学报》2007年第10期1194-1198,共5页Journal of Tianjin University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(10472077);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(20060400706)

摘　　要：赤潮藻类的细胞密度超过一定的阈值就能形成危害巨大的赤潮.基于渤海湾赤潮藻类细胞密度的连续监测数据,运用极值理论研究了藻类细胞密度的超阈值分布特性.研究结果表明,赤潮藻类细胞密度的概率分布有比正态分布更重的尾部,服从Pareto型的超阈值分布函数.通过实际监测数据,建立了渤海湾赤潮藻类细胞密度的Pareto型超阈值分布函数,并通过该函数计算了藻类细胞密度分别超过给定阈值的风险概率.When the concentration of algae exceeds a threshold, there will be harmful algal blooms. Based on the data of concentration of harmful algae in Bohai Bay, using extreme value theory, the peak-over-threshold distribution of the algae concentration was analyzed. It demonstrates that the distribution of algae concentration is generalized Pareto distribution, which has a heavier tail than normal distribution. Based on the real field data, a generalized Pareto distribution function of the algae concentration was obtained. And the peak-over-threshold risk probabilities of different algae concentrations were calculated.

关 键 词：渤海湾 赤潮 广义PARETO分布 

分 类 号：P735.1[天文地球—海洋生物学]