燃料价格对城市车用天然气供需平衡的仿真分析  

Simulation analysis of fuel price to supply and demand balance on automobile-used natural gas in city

作　　者：孙静春[1] 吕丁[1] 袁治平[1] 王建伟[1] 李元[2] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学管理学院,西安710049 [2]广州大学数学与信息科学学院,广州510006

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2008年第2期43-51,共9页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(G0222208)

摘　　要：以西安市车用天然气为研究对象,采用蒙特卡罗仿真技术对城市车用天然气供需失衡这一问题进行了研究,并利用计算机仿真结果描述了燃料价格对燃气供给量和需求量的影响.通过对仿真结果的分析,找到实现燃气供需均衡时燃料价格和燃料价格比率的变动范围,测度了燃料价格及其比率与发生供需均衡概率之间的关系.The imbalance on supply and demand of automobile-used natural gas in city is an outstanding problem during the gasification evolution. As the research object with the automobile-used natural gas in Xi＇ an, the paper adopts the methods of Monte Carlo simulation, simulating the impact on supply and demand quantity of fuel price by comptuter. Through the analysis of simulation result, the paper finds the range of fuel price and fuel price rate when realize gas supply and demand balanced, and estimates the relation of fuel price, fuel price rate and balanced probability of supply and demand. The conclusion has an important realistic meanings.

关 键 词：车用天然气 供需量 蒙特卡罗仿真 

分 类 号：N945.12[自然科学总论—系统科学]