利用地温构建菏泽牡丹花期预测模型  

A Prediction Model for Florescence of Tree Peony Based on Soil Temperature in Heze City of Shandong Province

作　　者：张菲[1] 邢小霞[1] 李仁杰[1] 盖树鹏[1] 郑国生[1] 

机构地区：[1]莱阳农学院

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2008年第1期87-89,共3页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金项目(Z2005D04)

摘　　要：针对山东菏泽市的国际牡丹花会召开时间难与牡丹花期吻合,影响当地牡丹产业和牡丹文化发展这一现状,通过分析菏泽地区土壤温度与牡丹盛花期之间的关系,建立了地温(1月20日距地温稳定高于4℃的首日的天数和首日距4月10日的平均地温)与盛花期之间的多元非线性回归预测模型,并利用该模型对28 a来的盛花期进行了预测。预测结果与实际开花期的最大误差为±4d,预测效果较好,为确定菏泽国际牡丹花会的召开时间提供了预测方法和模型。The florescence of the local peony （Paeonia suffruticosa Andr. ） in the Heze City hardly meets the date of the Heze International Peony Fair, which greatly influences the local industrial development of the tree peony. Based on the analysis of the relationship between the florescence of the local peony and the soil temperature, a prediction model for florescence of tree peony based on the soil temperature was established by multivariate nonlinear regression analysis. The parameters included the days from January 20^th to the first day with soil temperature above 4℃ and the average soil temperature from the first day to April 10^th. The prediction model was validated by the florescence data in the last 28 years. The maximal error between the predicted date for the florescence of the tree peony and the factual florescence observed was with 4 days. The model could provide the prediction method to determine the date of the Heze International Peony Fair.

关 键 词：花期预报 地温 多元非线性回归分析 预测模型 

分 类 号：S685.11[农业科学—观赏园艺] O212.1[农业科学—园艺学]