大连市水资源安全评价模型的构建及其应用  

Establishment and application of the assessment model for water resources safety in Dalian

作　　者：孙才志[1] 迟克续[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2008年第1期115-118,共4页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40501013);国家社会科学基金项目(03CJL006)

摘　　要：水资源安全问题是水科学与系统科学交叉研究的热点。以大连市为例构建评价指标体系,通过层次分析法(AHP)与熵值法确定评价指标在满足主客观条件下的综合权重;采用率定方程确定各指标的安全度;应用指数合成法对大连市水资源的安全状况进行评价。研究结果表明,近几年大连市水资源总体上处于不安全状态且不安全状况主要发生在农村。为保证社会、经济、环境各方面协调发展,必须重点解决农村地区的用水问题。本文同时也就解决水资源安全问题提出了一些建议。This paper aims to take city of Dalian as a sample to introduce its proposed assessment model for water resource security and its application in assessing Dalian＇s water use practice. For this purpose, this paper takes it axiomatic to include into factors influencing water security, such as social security, economic security, as well as the environmental security. And, accordingly, water security assessment should involve not only the situation of water reseurees, but also the actual situation of the whole environment, society and economy. Thus, we have designed an assessment index system and adopted the method of AHP and entropy in calculating the comprehensive weight with the respect of considering the objective and subjective conditions, as well as the security degree （SD） of each index determined by the calibration equation. In addition, the general security condi- tion has also been evaluated by the comprehensive index assessment model. Here, it is proposed that SD, ranging from 0 to 1, .can be taken as a simple indicator to assess the regional water security. If there is a higher SD with a region, it means it is more secure with its water resource than the one with a lower SD. The use of our model shows that the water security of Dalian City, in recent years, can be ranked as reed-level security according to the value of SD, that is, the real water situation. And the SD also indicates that the key to water security of Dalian is the shortage of water reseurees, especially in the rural areas. In order to promote the harmonious development among society, economy and environment, more efforts should be made to improve water consumption situation in the rural areas＇ water. In conclusion, the comprehensive index assessment model can be taken as a useful tool to assess the progress of water security and helpful for the water reseurees managers and policymakers.

关 键 词：水资源保护 水资源安全 综合指数评价模型 大连市 

分 类 号：F323.213[经济管理—产业经济] TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]