风险积分参数RI在LPG站风险分析及评价中的应用  

An application of risk integral parameter RI in risk analysis and evaluation of LPG stations

作　　者：李清水[1] 刘茂[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津300071

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2008年第1期149-151,共3页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金："十一五"科技支撑计划项目"应急预案编制技术及应急优化管理技术研究及应急决策支持系统研究"(200603746006)

摘　　要：对液化石油气站选址风险进行定量分析,判断风险的可接受性,从而确定选址是否合理。拟建液化石油气站的F/N曲线未知,辨识液化石油气站可能发生的最严重事故,并应用风险积分参数确定液化石油气站的风险。经判断,液化石油气站可能发生的最严重事故为沸腾液体扩展蒸气爆炸(BLEVE),应用BLEVE火球模型对事故后果进行评价并确定事故影响范围,进而确定影响范围内的最大人数及事故发生频率,在此基础上对LPG站的风险积分参数进行计算。将计算结果与英国安全卫生执行局应用ALARP准则制定的风险可接受标准进行比较。结果表明,该液化石油气站的风险处于合理可接受区。采取一定风险减缓措施后,可考虑在此地点建设液化石油气站。This paper is aimed at presenting its research results on identifying the risk probability with the liquefied-gas transportation and storing stations by applying a method known as ＂the risk integral parameter＂. Actually, our improved method has been developed in reference to the UK Health Safety Executive＇ s acceptable risk standard, aiming at reducing the accidents to the acceptable level （AL）. The result shows that the risk of this proposed LPG station is within the acceptable level if the measures taken are assured. In our method, it is absolutely necessary to take into full consideration the likely influence of the factors leading to the flame-ignition and material-explosion in setting up the proposed LPG Stations, though such accidents cannot be avoided absolutely. Therefore, the suggested method for analyzing and evaluation can make contribution to reducing the risk of LPG station to the reasonable or acceptable level from the point of view of building site selection.

关 键 词：安全工程 风险评价 风险积分参数 风险 LPG F/N曲线 BLEVE 

分 类 号：X932[环境科学与工程—安全科学]