钢铁行业上市公司内在价值与股价泡沫问题研究  

A Study on the Intrinsic Value of Steel Corporations and the Stock Market Bubble

作　　者：陈资灿[1] 

机构地区：[1]福州大学管理学院,福州350002

出　　处：《北京科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2007年第4期46-52,57,共8页Journal of University of Science and Technology Beijing(Social Sciences Edition)

摘　　要：基于剩余收益模型测算钢铁行业上市公司股票内在价值与股价泡沫,并根据美国股票市场泡沫分析结果,引入衡量股市泡沫性质的标准。发现2007年上半年,绝大部分钢铁行业上市公司的股价运行于价值低估与正常泡沫区间。由此可见可以推断2007年上半年股市存在严重泡沫的观点是不准确的,并指出出政府不宜用股价指数与市盈率来判断股市泡沫。Using the Residual Income Model, the paper measures the intrinsic value and the bubbles of the steel corporations, and based on the bubble analysis of American stock market, it introduces the criterion to estimate the character, of the stock mrket bubble. We found that the stocks of the majority of steel corporation were traded at a price between below their intrinsic value and rational stock market bubble in the first half of 2007. Accordingly, we can conclude that the viewpoint that the Chinese stock market is full of bubbles in the first of 2007 is incorrect, at the same time, government cannot judge the stock market bubble only by stock index and P/E Ratio.

关 键 词：内在价值 股价泡沫 市盈率 

分 类 号：F4[经济管理—产业经济]