人民币汇率变动投资效应的地区特征  

On the Investment Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Volatility

作　　者：田素华[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学世界经济系

出　　处：《社会科学》2008年第2期31-39,共9页Journal of Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(项目批准号:07BJL043);上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(项目批准号:2005BJL001)的资助

摘　　要：汇率变动会通过利率平价条件影响投资者的资产选择,也会通过购买力平价条件影响商品国际竞争力,企业在汇率变动条件下的投资决策主要是基于对汇率变动的财富效应、需求效应、成本效应和风险效应的综合考虑。通过引入风险因素的效用函数对汇率制度改革进行实证分析,表明人民币汇率的变动对地区投资产生相应的效应;研究还发现,人民币对美元汇率波动幅度加大和对美元升值,对中国经济重心"由长江以南向长江以北以及由东部地区向中部地区"的转移过程有助推作用。Exchange rate volatility affects not only investors' asset selection through interest rate parity but also affects international competitiveness of goods by purchase power parity.It is effects of wealth,demand,cost,and risk that play important roles in firms' investment decisions when exchange rate changes.The essay makes an empirical study on provincial investment impact of RMB exchange rate volatility.It shows that the newly increased investment of fixed asset in some provinces such as Shandong,Hebei,Jilin has risen clearly when the variation of RMB exchange rate against USD happens.However,newly increased similar investment in some provinces including Fujian,Zhejiang,Shanghai has been restrained.Furthermore,the volatility of RMB exchange rate against USD is helpful to pull the economic center of China moving from the south of Yangtse River to the north.

关 键 词：汇率变化 投资效应 地区特征 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]